Surviving 1000 Centuries (eBook)
XXVI, 422 Seiten
Springer New York (Verlag)
978-0-387-74635-7 (ISBN)
The circumstances that will shape the long-term future of our planet will be constrained by what is physically possible and what is not. This full color book provides a quantitative view of our civilization over the next 100,000 years, in comparison to the 40-60,000 years it took for modern humans to emerge from Africa, on the basis of contemporary scientific and technological knowledge. The evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and the origin of water are highlighted as the most important factors for the emergence and the development of life.
The authors consider both cosmic and natural hazards, pointing out that scientific information provided by satellites and communication systems on the ground could prevent many unnecessary casualties by forward planning and the installation of elementary precautions. The Earth's evolving climate is considered, showing how greenhouse gases have played an important role in the past climate, whereas human industrial and agricultural emissions will greatly impact our future.
Dr R M Bonnet and Dr L Woltjer are outstanding, internationally renowned scientists. During his long tenure at the European Space Agency, Dr Bonnet has directed the launch of 17 artificial scientific satellites, initiating the development of the Huygens probe placed on the NASA Cassini Saturn Orbiter which landed on Titan on 14 January 2005, developing the successful Mars Express mission and directing the SMART-1 European lunar mission. He is President of COSPAR and Executive Director of ISSI and has acquired a world reputation in the field of space politics. After 11 years at Columbia University, NY, Dr Woltjer returned to Europe as Director General of ESO for 13 years. Since then he has worked closely with the Observatories de Haute Provence in France and the University of Florence in Italy, was President of the International Astronomical Union and Chairman of the Space Science Advisory Committee of ESA for 4 years.
The circumstances that will shape the long-term future of our planet will be constrained by what is physically possible and what is not. This book provides a quantitative view of our civilization over the next 100,000 years, in comparison to the 40-60,000 years it took for modern humans to emerge from Africa, on the basis of contemporary scientific and technological knowledge. The first 5 chapters provide the general scientific background, starting with a brief history of our planet, from its formation 4.5 billion years ago until the present day. The evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and the origin of water are highlighted as being the most important factors for the emergence and the development of life, especially in comparison to Earth's neighbours, Venus and Mars. The authors then consider both cosmic and natural hazards, pointing out that scientific information provided by satellites and communication systems on the ground could prevent many unnecessary casualties by forward planning and the installation of elementary precautions.The changing climate in the past and in the future is considered, showing how atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2 and methane played an important role in past climates, whereas future human industrial and agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases largely determine the future climate. The authors highlight the importance of long term monitoring and control of the atmospheric composition. Chapter 7 looks at future energy and inorganic resources, the needs for which in the year 100,000 will be five times larger than the present ones. The most likely sources will be from fusion, solar and wind energy, and storage facilities will be needed for the latter two. Water, agriculture and forests are considered in the following chapter: although adequate food and water should be available worldwide, inadequate management may cause some densely populated areas to experience shortages. The colonization of other planets, in particular Mars and Venus, and the possibility of extracting resources from the Moon or asteroids are discussed in Chapter 9. The final chapters stress the importance of international collaboration to manage Earth's future, together with the crucial role of space for its monitoring, surveillance and management. Cooperative world governance and global laws should be undertaken by the political, scientific and space worlds and encompass both the rich and poorer countries.
Table of Contents
5
List of Illustrations
10
Foreword
14
Preface
16
Acknowledgments
18
1 Introduction
19
1.1 Why a hundred thousand years ?
19
1.2 People and resources
23
1.3 Management and cooperarion
25
1.4 The overall plan of the book
27
1.5 Notes and references
29
2 A Brief History of the Earth
30
2.1 The age of the Earth
30
2.2 Geological timescales
33
2.3 The formation of the Moon and the Late Heavy Bombardment
35
2.4 Continents and plate tectonics
40
2.4.1 Continents
40
2.4.2 Plate tectonics
41
2.4.3 The Earth's magnetic field
45
2.4 Evolution ofthe Earth's atmosphere
48
2.6 Life and evolution
52
2.6.1 The early fossils in the Archean
52
2.6.2 The Proterozoic and the apparition of oxygen
54
2.6.3 The Neo-Proterozoic: the Ediacarans and the 'snowball earth'
55
2.6.4 The Phanerozoic, life extinctions
60
2.7 Conclusion
65
2.8 Notes and references
65
3 Cosmic Menaces
70
3.1 Introduction
70
3.2 Galactic hazards
71
3.2.1 The death of the Sun
74
3.2.2 Encounters with interstellar clouds and stars
74
3.2.3 Supernovae explosions, UV radiation and cosmic rays
76
3.2.4 Gamma-ray bursts and magnetars
77
3.3 Solar System hazards
79
3.3.1 Past tracks of violence
79
3.3.2 The nature of the impactors: asteroids and comets
83
3.3.3 Estimating the danger
90
3.3.4 The bombardment continues
93
3.3.5 Mitigation measures
97
3.3.6 Deviation from the dangerous path
97
3.3.7 Decision making
101
3.3.8 Space debris
102
3.4 Conclusion
106
3.5 Notes and references
106
4 Terrestrial Hazards
109
4.1 Introduction
109
4.2 Diseases
111
4.2.1 How old shall we be in 1,000 centuries?
114
4.2.2 How tall shall we be in 1,000 centuries ?
116
4.3 Seismis hazards: the threat of volcanoes
118
4.3.1 Volcanoes and tectonic activity
118
4.3.2 The destructive power of volcanoes
122
4.3.3 Volcanoes and climate change
125
4.3.4 Forecasting eruptions
128
4.4 Seismic hazards: the threat of earthquakes
131
4.4.1 Measuring the power of earthquakes
135
4.4.2 Earthquake forecasting
136
4.4.3 Mitigation against earthquakes
141
4.5 Tsunamis
141
4.5.1 What are they ?
141
4.5.2 The 26 December 2004 tsunami
143
4.5.3 Forecasting tsunamis and mitigation approaches
144
4.6 Climatic hazards
148
4.6.1 Storms: cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, ect.
148
4.6.2 Floods
153
4.6.3 Droughts
158
4.7 Conclusion
162
4.8 Notes and references
164
5 The Changing Climate
168
5.1 Miscellaneous evidence of climate change
168
5.2 The global climate system
171
5.3 Climates in the distant past
175
5.4 The recent ice ages
178
5.5 Recent climate
186
5.6 Changes in the Sun
189
5.7 Volcanic eruptions
191
5.8 Anthropogenic CO2
192
5.9 Interpretation of the recent record
193
5.10 The ozone hole
194
5.11 Notes and references
197
6 Climate Futures
201
6.1 Scenarios for future climates
202
6.2 Geographic distribution of warming
208
6.3 Sea level
211
6.4 The 100,000-year climate future 215
6.5 Doubts
219
6.6 Consequences of climate change
220
6.7 Appendix
221
6.7.1 The four main SRES scenarios
221
6.8 Notes and references
223
7 The Future of Survivability: Energy and Inorganic Resources
226
7.1 Energy for 100,000 years
226
7.1.1 Energy requirements for the 100,000-year world
228
7.1.2 Minor energy source for the long-term future
230
7.1.3 Wind energy
232
7.1.4 Solar energy
234
7.1.5 Biofuels
236
7.1.6 Nuclear energy
238
7.1.7 Fusion energy
241
7.2. Energy for the present century
245
7.2.1 Fossil carbon fuels
245
7.2.2 Electricity and renewables
249
7.2.3 From now to then
249
7.3 Elements and minerals
251
7.3.1 Abundances and formation of the elements
251
7.3.2 The composition of the Earth
254
7.3.3 Mineral resources
255
7.3.4 The present outlook
257
7.3.5 Mineral resources for 100,000 years
258
7.4 Conclusion
263
7.5 Notes and references
263
8 The Future of Survivability: Water and Organic Resources
266
8.1 Water
266
8.1.1 The water cycle
267
8.1.2 Water use and water stress
268
8.1.3 Remedial measures
270
8.1.4 Water for 100,000 years
273
8.1.5 From now to then: water and climate change
275
8.2 Agriculture 276
8.2.1 Increasing productivity
276
8.2.2 Present and past land use
278
8.2.3 Population
279
8.2.4 Agricultural land and production
279
8.2.5 Irrigation
280
8.2.6 Fertilizers and pesticides
280
8.2.7 Top soil
281
8.2.8 Agriculture for 100,000 years
282
8.2.9 From now to then
284
8.3 Forests and wilderness
284
8.3.1 Deforestation
286
8.4 Conclusion
289
8.5 Notes and references
289
9 Leaving Earth: From Dreams to Reality ?
293
9.1 Introduction
293
9.2 Where to go ?
294
9.2.1 The case of Venus
296
9.2.2 The case of Mars
300
9.2.3 Other worlds
306
9.2.4 Interrtellar travel
309
9.2.5 Space cities?
311
9.3 What to do with the Moon?
312
9.3.1 The Lunar Space Station
313
9.3.2 The Moon as a scientific base
314
9.3.3 The Moon for non-scientific exploitation
315
9.3.4 Resources from outside the Earth-Moon system: planets and asteroids
318
9.4 Terraforming the Earth
320
9.4.1 Absorbing or storing CO2
320
9.4.2 Cooling down the Earth
321
9.5 Conclusion
323
9.6 Notes and references
323
10 Managing the Planet's Future: The Crucial Role of Space
327
10.1 Introduction
327
10.2 The specific needs for space observations of the Earth
328
10. 2.1 The Earth's Interior
328
10.2.2 Water: the hydrosphere and the cryosphere
331
10.2.3 The atmosphere
335
10.2.4 The biosphere
339
10.3 The tools and methods of space
341
10.3.1 The best orbits for Earth observation
342
10.3.2 Geodesy and altimetry satellites: measuring the shapes of the Earth
343
10.3.3 Global Positioning Systems
349
10.3.4 Synthetic Aperture Radars
351
10.3.5 Optical imaging
359
10.3.6 Remote-sensing spectroscopy
362
10.3.7 Radiometry
366
10.3.8 Monitoring astronomical and solar influences
369
10.4 Conclusion
374
10.5 Notes and references
375
11.Managing the Planet's Future: Setting-Up the Structures
378
11.1 Introduction
378
11.2 The alert phase: need for a systematic scientific approach
379
11.2.1 Forecasting the weather: the 'easy' case
379
11.2.2 The scientific alert phase: the example of the IPCC
383
11.2.3 Organizing the space tools 387
11.3 The indispensable political involvement
392
11.3.1 The crucial role of the United States, China and India
392
11.3.2 A perspective view on the political perception
395
11.3.3 The emotional perception: the scene is moving
404
11.4 Conclusion: towards world ecoligical governance?
408
11.5 Notes and references
410
12 Conclusion
414
12.1 Limiting population growth
414
12.2 Stabilizing global warming
416
12.3 The limits of vessel-Earth
417
12.4 The crucial role of education and science
418
12.5 New governance required
419
12.6 The difficult and urgent transition phase
421
12.7 Adapting to as static society
422
12.8 Notes and references
424
Index
425
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 2.4.2010 |
|---|---|
| Reihe/Serie | Popular Science | Springer Praxis Books |
| Zusatzinfo | XX, 422 p. 106 illus., 70 illus. in color. |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Themenwelt | Sachbuch/Ratgeber ► Natur / Technik ► Weltraum / Astronomie |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz | |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie ► Astronomie / Astrophysik | |
| Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik | |
| Schlagworte | climate change • end of civilization • energy technology changes • global catastrophe • Greenhouse Gas • human extinction • renewable energy • Satellite • Star • survival of humankind • Technological Sustainability • Wind |
| ISBN-10 | 0-387-74635-8 / 0387746358 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-387-74635-7 / 9780387746357 |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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